基于主成分分析的地铁车站施工风险评估研究

Study on Risk Assessment in Subway Station Construction Based on Principal Component Analysis

  • 摘要: 地铁车站施工环境复杂、风险源多,一旦发生事故损失较大。因此,提前做好风险评估来降低风险损失尤为重要。文章基于某地铁车站工程实例,建立三层递阶结构风险指标体系,每个风险因素依据风险发生概率等级和风险损失等级加权赋值。主成分分析法作为一种多元统计方法,通过矩阵线性变换的原理构建主成分分析数学模型,经矩阵运算得到少数潜在的可观测综合指标(主成分),再由综合指标与对应的方差贡献率构造综合评价函数,计算风险类别综合得分,并通过得分高低反映相互间的风险大小。实例评估结果表明,周边环境的风险大于基坑和围护结构的施工风险,基本反映了施工现场实际情况,因此所提方法的实用性强。

     

    Abstract: The construction environment of subway station is complicated with many risk sources. Great losses will be resulted in if an accident occurs. Therefore, it is very important to carry out the risk assessment in advance to reduce the risks and losses. In this paper, a three-level hierarchical structural risk index system is established based on a subway station project case, and the weight of each risk factor is assigned according to the risk occurrence probability level and risk loss level. As a multivariate statistical method, the principal component analysis method is used to build a mathematical model for principal component analysis by a matrix of linear transformation, then obtain a few potential observable comprehensive indexes (principal components) by matrix operation and finally construct comprehensive evaluation function by comprehensive indexes and the corresponding variance contribution rates, so as to calculate the comprehensive score of each risk category and reflect the magnitude of a risk by the score. As shown in the case evaluation results, the surrounding environment risks are greater than those of foundation pit and retaining structure construction, which basically reflects the actual conditions of the construction site,thus showing strong practicability of the proposed method.

     

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