基于灰色上、下限理论的土质隧道变形预测分析及安全评价

Analysis and Evaluation of Deformation Prediction for Soil Tunnels Based on the Grey Theory with Upper and Lower Bounds

  • 摘要: 在隧道变形预测中,灰色模型只能预测隧道变形的总体趋势,而不能反映预测误差带来的波动性,给隧道变形的前期预警带来困难。文章针对灰色理论在土质隧道变形预测中的这一缺陷,提出了灰色上、下限理论方法,通过对灰色模型中存在的预测误差进行处理,定出灰色预测的上、下界限,使模型具有一定的预测宽度,改变了灰色模型关于时序的点预测形式,为隧道变形预警提供了一定的前期准备时间;同时,根据变形控制线与灰色上、下限曲线以及灰色中线的相交形式,对土质隧道变形的安全等级加以划分,从而更为合理地判断土质隧道变形的安全性。

     

    Abstract: In tunnel deformation prediction, the grey model can be used to only predict the general trend of tunnel deformation, not to reflect the volatility caused by prediction errors. Therefore, early warning for tunnel deformation is difficult. In order to address the shortcomings of grey theory regarding the prediction of soil tunnel deformation, a grey theory with upper and lower bounds was put forward, and the upper and lower bounds in grey prediction were defined by processing the prediction errors in the grey model. With a given prediction zone, this method improved the grey prediction form (point by point) in time-series, providing warning time for tunnel deformation. Meanwhile, according to the intersection forms of the deformation control lines, grey limit curves, and grey midline, the safety levels regarding soil tunnel deformation were classified so that the safety of soil tunnels can be estimated more reasonably.

     

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