基于SSA-LightGBM的高地应力隧道挤压预测研究

Prediction of Tunnel Squeezing in High Geostress Conditions Using SSA-LightGBM

  • 摘要: 隧道挤压是高地应力软岩区常见的地质灾害,高精度预测隧道挤压程度具有重要意义。针对传统二分类模型的局限性,提出基于麻雀搜索算法(Sparrow Search Algorithm,SSA)优化的多类预测模型SSA-LightGBM,实现对隧道挤压严重程度的多分类准确预测。通过收集国内外143个隧道工程案例,构建包含5个大变形预测关键参数的数据库,依据我国铁路隧道大变形分级标准,采用10折交叉验证法评估模型性能。结果表明,SSA-LightGBM模型对各级别挤压预测的平均准确率达92.9%,较其他7种主流机器学习模型预测准确率高4.3%~30.4%。将SSA-LightGBM模型应用于实际隧道工程大变形段进行预测,模型预测结果与实际情况基本一致,验证了其工程实用性。

     

    Abstract: Tunnel squeezing is a common geological hazard in high in-situ stress soft rock areas, and high-precision prediction of tunnel squeezing severity is of great significance. In view of the limitations of traditional binary classification models, a multi-class prediction model, SSA-LightGBM, optimized based on the Sparrow Search Algorithm (SSA), is proposed to achieve accurate multi-class prediction of the severity of tunnel compression. By collecting 143 tunnel engineering cases from both domestic and international sources, a database containing five key parameters for predicting large deformation is constructed. According to China's railway tunnel large deformation classification standards, the performance of the model is evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation method. The results show that the average accuracy of the SSA-LightGBM model in predicting squeezing at all levels reaches 92.9%, which is 4.3% to 30.4% higher than that of the other seven mainstream machine learning models. The SSA-LightGBM model is applied to predict the large deformation sections of actual tunnel engineering, and the prediction results are basically consistent with the actual situation, verifying its practical engineering applicability.

     

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