Abstract: Taking the section between Beiyunhe West and Beiyunhe East stations of Phase II of Beijing Metro Line 6 as the engineering background, this study investigates the long-term additional ground settlement above a metro tunnel induced by cyclic train loading through numerical prediction and field monitoring verification. A three-dimensional tunnel-soil dynamic model was first established in ABAQUS based on the actual stratigraphic conditions and operating parameters to obtain the dynamic responses of the tunnel and surrounding soils under typical train loading conditions. On this basis, an empirical cumulative plastic strain model was introduced to predict the long-term evolution of additional settlement in the ground surface and surrounding soil layers. In addition, long-term monitoring data along the line were used to distinguish regional background settlement from the additional settlement caused by metro operation, and the calculated results were compared with the back-calculated operational additional settlement for validation. The results indicate that the additional ground settlement at the tunnel centerline increases continuously with time under long-term cyclic train loading, with rapid development in the early stage and an obvious tendency to stabilize after about 5 years of operation. After 10 years of operation, the predicted additional settlement at the centerline reaches about 59.79 mm. In the transverse direction perpendicular to the tunnel axis, the additional settlement decreases markedly with increasing distance from the tunnel centerline and becomes relatively small at about 30 m, indicating a limited influence range. The agreement between the predicted and monitored results demonstrates the rationality of the proposed method, which can provide technical support for long-term settlement assessment, monitoring layout, and environmental impact analysis of similar metro tunnel projects.