隧道工程系统韧性影响因素及评价研究

Research on Factors Influencing the Resilience of the Tunnel System and Related Evaluation

  • 摘要: 为解决越岭隧道工程地质灾害频发、救援难度大、灾后修复困难等问题,将韧性理论引入隧道工程系统安全体系中,提出基于DEMATEL-BN的隧道工程系统韧性评价模型。并从“人、机、料、法,环”5个方面初步识别出22个影响因素。通过DEMATEL剔除关联度较小的影响因素并构建贝叶斯网络拓扑图;结合贝叶斯网络和GeNIe软件正向推理计算系统韧性值;通过逆向推理及敏感性分析识别关键影响链及敏感因素;最后,以冰草湾隧道为例进行实证研究。结果表明:冰草湾隧道具有中高韧性水平,关键影响链为“应急救援演练→应急决策与响应→恢复能力”,敏感因素为“复杂的地质条件、安全文明施工、应急决策与响应”,结合分析提出阶段性提升建议。

     

    Abstract: In order to solve the problems of frequently occurred geological hazards, difficulty in rescue and posthazard repair in tunnel engineering, the resilience theory is introduced into the safety system of the tunnel engineering system, and a DEMATEL-BN based tunnel engineering system resilience evaluation model is proposed. Twentytwo influence factors are initially identified from five aspects: human, machine, material, method and environment.Influence factors with low correlation are eliminated through DEMATEL and a Bayesian network topology diagram is constructed; the system resilience value is calculated by forward reasoning in combination with the Bayesian networks and the GeNIe software; key influence chains and sensitive factors are identified by reverse reasoning and sensitivity analysis; finally, an empirical study is conducted using the Bingcaowan Tunnel as an example. The results show that the Bingcaowan Tunnel has a medium to high level of resilience, with a key influence chain of "emergency rescue drills → emergency decision-making and response → recovery ability", and sensitive factors of "complex geological conditions, safe and civilized construction, emergency decision-making and response". Finally, phased improvement suggestions are proposed based on analysis.

     

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