基于Bootstrap-COA-BiGRU模型的TBM掘进步稳定段掘进参数区间预测

Interval Prediction of TBM Parameters in Stable Excavation Sections Based on Bootstrap-COA-BiGRU Model

  • 摘要: 针对现有TBM掘进步稳定段掘进参数点预测模型忽略预测过程中的不确定性误差,且无法描述预测结果的可信度问题,提出一种基于Bootstrap-COA-BiGRU 算法的TBM掘进步稳定段掘进参数区间预测模型。首先,采用COA算法优化BiGRU神经网络的超参数,使得模型能够更好地自主学习TBM掘进上升段数据在时间和特征维度上蕴含的岩机相互作用非线性关系,有效提升模型的预测精度。其次,通过分析点预测模型的预测结果,引入区间预测方法,量化表征TBM掘进步稳定段掘进参数预测过程中模型的不确定性和数据中的随机不确定性,获得高质量的稳定段掘进参数预测区间。最后,将该模型应用于新疆YEGS工程,开展Ⅱ~Ⅳ类围岩条件下的TBM掘进参数区间预测,并将预测结果与BP模型、GRU模型、BiGRU模型和COA-GRU模型进行对比,验证所建模型的优越性和方法的实用性,推动TBM智能化辅助施工的发展。

     

    Abstract: Existing TBM parameter point prediction models for stable excavation sections ignore the uncertainty errors during the prediction process and fail to describe the confidence level of the prediction results. This paper proposes a TBM parameter interval prediction model for stable excavation sections based on the Bootstrap-COA-BiGRU algorithm. First, the COA algorithm is used to optimize the hyperparameters of the BiGRU neural network, allowing the model to better autonomously learn the complex nonlinear relationship of the rock-machine interaction in the time and feature dimensions of the TBM data in ascending phase , effectively improving the model's prediction accuracy.Secondly, by analyzing the results of point prediction models, the interval prediction method is introduced to quantify the uncertainty of the model and random uncertainty in the data, obtaining high-quality parameter prediction intervals in TBM stable excavation phase. Finally, the proposed model is applied to the Xinjiang YEGS project for interval prediction of TBM parameters under class Ⅱ~Ⅳ surrounding rock conditions, and the results are compared with BP, GRU, BiGRU, and COA-GRU models to verify the superiority and practicality of the proposed model, promoting the development of TBM intelligent construction.

     

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