基于TPE-XGBoost-GRU的盾构姿态混合预测模型及其应用

Hybrid Prediction Model for Shield Machine Attitude Based on TPE-XGBoost-GRU and Its Application

  • 摘要: 盾构姿态的实时预测和控制是保障盾构施工安全的关键,针对现有方法预测精度低、参数选择模糊等问题,提出一种基于TPE-XGBoost-GRU的盾构姿态混合预测模型。该模型考虑了4类影响盾构掘进姿态的因素,通过XGBoost算法中的增益方法筛选关键特征,并利用贝叶斯优化中的树结构Parzen估计算法(TPE)对GRU模型进行优化。最后,通过比较不同超参数优化方法与深度学习算法的预测性能,验证所提模型的优越性。研究结果表明,盾构姿态历史数据对盾构姿态预测具有关键作用;在超参数优化过程中,GRU的隐藏单元数量和学习率是关键影响因素,重要性分别占0.36和0.30;在预测性能优化方面,TPE优化优于随机搜索和网格搜索优化,MAE和R2最大提升幅度分别达到41.1%和12.0%;在TPE优化下,3种算法模型的预测性能依次为GRU>LSTM>RNN。

     

    Abstract: Real-time prediction and control of shield machine attitude are crucial for ensuring construction safety. To address the issues of low prediction accuracy and ambiguous parameter selection in existing methods, this study proposes a hybrid prediction model based on TPE-XGBoost-GRU. The model considers four categories of factors influencing shield attitude, selects key features through the gain method in XGBoost algorithm, and optimizes the GRU model using Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE) in Bayesian optimization. The superiority of the proposed model is verified by comparing the prediction performance of different hyperparameter optimization methods with deep learning algorithms. The results demonstrate that: (1) Historical shield attitude data play a critical role in attitude prediction; (2) During hyperparameter optimization, the number of hidden units and learning rate in GRU are key influencing factors, with importance weights of 0.36 and 0.30, respectively; (3) For prediction performance optimization, TPE outperforms random search and grid search, with maximum improvements of 41.1% in MAE and 12.0% in R2; (4) Under TPE optimization, the prediction performance of the three algorithm models ranks as GRU >LSTM > RNN.

     

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