基于DBO-A-LSTM的公路隧道短时多步交通量预测

Short-term Multi-step Traffic Volume Prediction for Highway Tunnels Based on DBO-A-LSTM

  • 摘要: 随着“双碳”目标的提出及节能减排要求的提高,公路隧道通风节能需求日益增长,对交通量预测准确性提出更高要求。为实现公路隧道通风系统的低碳化调控,文章基于某高速公路隧道每5 min间隔的交通量数据,对比分析多种常见交通量预测模型在短时多步预测任务中的性能,提出融合蜣螂优化算法(DBO)和自注意力机制的改进预测框架,优化得到预测效果显著提升的DBO-A-LSTM算法。针对节假日高峰时段预测误差问题,通过数据集优化改进的DBO-A-LSTM模型,经过置信区间分析、t检验和Wilcoxon检验表明,优化后的DBO-A-LSTM模型在各工况下预测效果显著提升,R2值稳定保持在0.75以上,整体趋势的预测效果较好;MAPE误差低于22.2%,平均百分比误差较小,且通过图像分析发现,预测值能够更好地切合交通量高峰的变化趋势。该模型可应用于隧道需风量实时计算,通过5 min级动态预测实现未来20 min内的隧道通风系统的超前调控,显著提升公路隧道节能通风智能控制的准确性和时效性,对推进交通基础设施低碳化运营具有实践意义。

     

    Abstract: With the proposal of the“dual carbon”goal and the increasing demand for energy conservation and emis?sion reduction, the need for energy-efficient ventilation in highway tunnels has grown substantially, placing higher requirements on the accuracy of traffic volume forecasting. To enable low-carbon regulation of tunnel ventilation systems, this study utilizes traffic volume data recorded at 5-minute intervals from a highway tunnel and compares the performance of several common forecasting models in short-term multi-step prediction tasks. An improved prediction framework is proposed by integrating the dung beetle optimization (DBO) algorithm and the self-attention mechanism into the LSTM neural network, yielding the DBO-A-LSTM model with significantly enhanced predictive performance. To address the issue of high prediction errors during holiday peak periods, the DBO-A-LSTM model is further refined through dataset optimization. Confidence interval analysis, t-tests, and Wilcoxon tests demonstrate that the optimized DBO-A-LSTM model achieves a stable R2 exceeding 0.75 under all scenarios, with accurate trend prediction; the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is reduced to below 22.2%, and the mean percentage error remains small. Visual analysis further confirms that the predicted values closely follow the fluctuation patterns of traffic peaks. The proposed model can be applied to real-time tunnel ventilation demand estimation, enabling proactive control of ventilation systems up to 20 minutes in advance based on 5-minute dynamic predictions. This approach significantly improves the accuracy and timeliness of intelligent energy-saving ventilation control in highway tunnels, offering practical implications for advancing low-carbon operation oftransportation infrastructure.

     

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