基于围岩级别变更的隧道工期与造价风险研究

Risk Assessment of Tunnel Construction Schedule and Cost Based on the Alteration of Rock Mass Classifications

  • 摘要: 隧道地质条件的复杂性及信息的不对称性,导致其在建设过程中存在较多的设计变更,特别是围岩变更加大了控制工期与造价的难度。考虑围岩变更对其工期与造价的影响,文章选取各级围岩的变更概率、单延米施工耗时及造价参数为随机变量,首次从围岩变更的角度构建了基于蒙特卡洛模拟的隧道工期与造价模型;通过对某双线隧道进行实证研究,验证了模型的实用性与可行性,对合理确定及评价隧道工期与造价提供了一条新的思路。

     

    Abstract: Complex geological conditions and information gaps often necessitate design alterations during tunnel construction. The alteration of rock mass classifications makes it especially difficult to control the construction schedule and cost. Considering the effects of the alteration of surrounding rock classifications on the construction period and cost, a Monte Carlo Simulation-based model was established by using the alteration probability of each rock mass classification, construction time, and cost per linear meter as random variables. Through the empirical study of a double-track tunnel, the practicability and feasibility of the model was verified, and a new method is provided for reasonably determining and assessing the construction schedule and cost of a tunnel.

     

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