Abstract：
During tunnel construction, the problem of deformation of surrounding rock is frequently encountered. This affects project quality and endangers those building the tunnel. Therefore, predicting the deformation of tunnel surrounding rock is very important. Considering the comprehensive effects of the geological structure, stratigraphic lithology, stress field, groundwater, and excavation method, the deformation of the tunnel surrounding rock was characterized. A model of the Grey-Markov chain (MC) was established by combining the Gray Model with the probability transition method of the Markov chain to forecast the deformation of the tunnel surrounding rock. This method makes use of the time series increase of the GM(1,1) model to predict the macroscopic trend of tunnel surrounding rock deformation and uses the Markov chain to ascertain the state transition probability matrix of the time series. Accurate prediction of the tunnel surrounding rock deformation is realized by state dividing and analyzing the absolute error and relative error between measured values and the MC values. Practical application verified that the calculated deformation agreed very well with the measured deformation.
2013, Vol. 50 