基于灰色模糊多属性群决策的越江隧道投资风险辨识

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摘要为控制越江隧道建设中普遍存在的“三超”投资风险，文章根据越江隧道投资风险辨识过程中的模糊性、灰性、多属性、群体性等特征，运用隶属度、灰度、多属性和群决策构建了基于灰色模糊多属性群决策的越江隧道投资风险辨识模型，以南京纬三路过江通道工程为例，验证了所构建模型的可行性和有效性。研究结果表明，该模型能够更全面、更真实地利用专家意见对越江隧道投资风险因素进行排序，帮助决策者更准确地了解建设中可能存在的关键风险、重大风险和一般风险，为后续的投资风险评价和采取针对性的预控措施提供科学合理的依据。

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关键词：越江隧道投资风险风险辨识灰色模糊多属性群决策

Abstract： To help control the investment risks regarding three commonly over-budget items in river-crossing tunnels, a risk-identification model based on grey fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making was established with respect to fuzzy, grey-level, multi-attribute and group risk characteristics. The model's feasibility and effectiveness were verified by using the Nanjing Weisan Road river-crossing project as an example. The results show that it is possible for the model to achieve risk sequencing by making use of expert opinions in a comprehensive and realistic way, helping decision makers to identify the key, major and general potential risks more accurately.

Keywords： River-crossing tunnel , Investment risk , Risk identification , Grey fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making

基金资助:

交通部建设科技项目(2013 318 Q03 030)

国家自然科学基金项目(51208432, U1361210)

国家科技支撑项目(2012BAG05B05)

作者简介: 刘光凤(1987-)，女，博士研究生，主要从事工程管理和风险管理研究工作， E-mail: 546290122@qq.com

引用本文:

.基于灰色模糊多属性群决策的越江隧道投资风险辨识[J] 现代隧道技术, 2015,V52(4): 41-48

.Identification of Investment Risks for River-Crossing Tunnels Based on Grey Fuzzy Multi-Attribute Group Decision Making[J] MODERN TUNNELLING TECHNOLOGY, 2015,V52(4): 41-48

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