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Displacement Prediction of Cavern Surrounding Rock Based on the Buffer Operator Revised Metabolism Unbiased Grey Model
(1 The 8th Detachment of the 3rd Hydropower Corps of Armed Police, Chongqing 401320; 2 Architecture and Civil Engineering,Chang′an University, Xi′an 710064)
Abstract Predictions for the displacement of surrounding rock is important to ensure safe high-quality construc? tion. In light of the characteristics of monotonous growth and randomness of time series regarding the deformation of surrounding rock, an exponential buffer weakening operator is introduced to eliminate the random effect on the original data series of rock mass displacement based on the theory of a GM (1,1) unbiased grey forecasting model. A buffer operator revised UBGM (1,1) metabolic unbiased grey model is put forward to predict rock mass displacement and is applied to the Pangduo key water conservancy project. The results show that the model is highly precise and reliable, thus providing a new approach for displacement prediction for surrounding rock.
Abstract：
Predictions for the displacement of surrounding rock is important to ensure safe high-quality construc? tion. In light of the characteristics of monotonous growth and randomness of time series regarding the deformation of surrounding rock, an exponential buffer weakening operator is introduced to eliminate the random effect on the original data series of rock mass displacement based on the theory of a GM (1,1) unbiased grey forecasting model. A buffer operator revised UBGM (1,1) metabolic unbiased grey model is put forward to predict rock mass displacement and is applied to the Pangduo key water conservancy project. The results show that the model is highly precise and reliable, thus providing a new approach for displacement prediction for surrounding rock.
.Displacement Prediction of Cavern Surrounding Rock Based on the Buffer Operator Revised Metabolism Unbiased Grey Model[J] MODERN TUNNELLING TECHNOLOGY, 2017,V54(2): 81-86
2017, Vol. 54 