岩溶地区隧道涌水风险的可拓评价模型及应用

Extension Assessment Model for the Risk of Water Inflow in Karst Tunnels and Its Application

  • 摘要: 岩溶地区隧道发生涌水灾害的风险大。文章基于可拓理论建立了岩溶区隧道涌水风险的可拓评估模型。在该模型中,首先建立岩溶区隧道涌水风险的多指标评估体系,并对评价指标做无量纲化处理;然后基于岩溶隧道涌水的评价指标的量测值建立待评物元;采用综合赋权法为各评价指标分配权重,其中指标的客观权重采用基于量测值的关联函数法确定,而主观权重采用基于专家知识的模糊层次分析法确定;最后推求待评隧道的物元关于涌水风险等级的关联函数值,通过最大关联度原则确定该隧道的涌水风险等级。同时,通过计算涌水风险等级的变量特征值来判断该风险等级偏向相邻等级的趋势。采用文章建立的风险可拓评价模型对某岩溶区隧道某里程段进行涌水风险评估,其评价结果与实际观测结果具有较好的吻合性,验证了该可拓评价模型的可靠性。

     

    Abstract: It is prone to encountering water inflow for the karst tunnel. An extension model for assessing the risk of water inflow in karst tunnels was established, in which a multi-index evaluation system of water inflow in karst tunnels was set up and the evaluation indices were nondimensionalized; a matter-element to be evaluated was built based on the measured data of the evaluation indices of water inflow in karst tunnels; comprehensive weighting method was used to assign weights for the evaluation indices, the objective weights are determined by measured data based correlation function, and the subjective weights are determined by fuzzy analytical hierarchy process based on the expert knowledge; the correlation function value of the matter-element to be evaluated with respect to the risk grades of water inflow was calculated, and the maximum correlation degree principle was adopted to determine the risk grade of water inflow of the tunnel to be evaluated; the variable characteristic value was calculated to determine the tendency of the risk grade being classified to the next risk grade. This extension model was used to assess the risk of water inflow of a section of certain karst tunnel and the assessment results agree well with the measured data, verifying the reliability of this extension assessment model.

     

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